基于FCGE模型的中国经济去杠杆影响研究

Research on Influence of China’s Economic Deleveraging Based on FCGE Model

近10年来,中国是全球杠杆率增长最快的国家。自2016年末重启新一轮去杠杆至今,"去杠杆"已经成为供给侧改革中最受关注的政策。文章构建了金融可计算一般均衡模型并编制了2015年社会核算矩阵,定量测算了各机构部门去杠杆,以及不同的去杠杆力度和去杠杆政策组合对于经济增长的影响。研究发现,激烈的去杠杆政策将使得信用创造大幅收缩,可能使得经济陷入萧条;实现"漂亮"的去杠杆,要注意政策对冲;同时,居民部门加杠杆对冲经济下行压力的效率优于政府部门。

China has seen the world’s fastest growth in leverage over the past decade. Since the resumption of a new round of deleveraging at the end of 2016,"deleveraging" has become the most concerned policy in the supply-side reform. This paper constructs the computable general equilibrium model of finance and compiles the social accounting matrix of 2015. And then the paper quantitatively calculates the deleveraging of various institutions and sectors, as well as the impact of different deleveraging intensity and deleveraging policy combination on economic growth. The study finds that aggressive deleveraging will cause a sharp contraction in credit creation, possibly pushing the economy into recession;attention should be paid to policy hedging so as to achieve"beautiful"deleveraging;at the same time, the efficiency of the residents department increasing leverage to hedge the economic downward pressure is better than that of the government.