产业结构变迁与中国经济增长——基于马克思主义政治经济学视角的分析

Industrial Structure Change and China’s Economic Growth——Analysis based on Marxist Political Economy Perspective

本文从马克思主义政治经济学视角分析经济增长中产业结构演进的基础和动力,基于三次产业劳动生产率计算的产业结构变迁度和以第三产业占比超越变化为临界点两种方法,总结中国改革开放40年以来产业结构变迁的典型事实,在此基础上,实证分析中国产业结构变迁对经济数量型增长和质量型增长的作用.研究发现:产业结构变迁对经济增长的作用效应不同,对数量型增长和质量型增长均表现出先降低后上升的过程,但随着产业结构变迁度提高,对质量型增长的促进作用稳步提升;进一步验证得到,当产业结构变迁度大于1或第三产业占比超过第二产业时,产业结构变迁对经济质量型增长的促进作用超过对数量型增长作用.因此,新时代中国需要不断提高产业结构变迁度,实现经济从高速增长向高质量增长转变.

This paper analyzes the basis and dynamics of industrial structure evolution in economic growth from the perspective of Marxist political economy. It adopts two methods including calculating the industrial structure change degree based on three times industrial labor productivity and taking the proportion of the tertiary industry to exceed the change as the tipping point, and summarizes the typical facts of industrial structure changes in the past 40 years since China's reform and opening up. On this basis, this paper also empirically analyzes the impact of China's industrial structure changes on the quantitative growth and qualitative growth of economy. The study finds that the effect of industrial structure change on economic growth is different, and the impact on both the quantitative growth and the qualitative growth shows a process of decreasing first and then increasing, but as the industrial structure changes, the promotion of qualitative growth is steadily increasing;It is further verified that when the industrial structure change degree is greater than 1 or the tertiary industry accounts for more than the secondary industry, the industrial structure change promotes the economic qualitative growth more than the quantitative growth. Therefore, China in new era needs to continuously improve the industry, and realize the transition of economy from high-speed growth to high-quality growth.