VLCC运价:随着季节因素影响加大 战争险保费影响是否已经结束?

VLCC spot rates: Additional War Risk Premiums affect seasonal trend

由于情绪因素开始影响当前的运价,市场认为未来几周运价不会大幅上涨,同时也没有迹象显示8月市场的压力会缓解,季节性因素可能会将运价压低至今年的最低水平。

July is a typically weak month for the VLCC segment.There has been limited optimism for the Middle East Gulf rates since the beginning of the month;Charterers have not yet started to work on August fixtures,as the Additional War Risk Premiums(AWRP)to transit the Strait of Hormuz were earlier expected to push the spot rates much higher for longer.According to the Baltic Exchange,TD3C(Middle East Gulf to China)has dropped from marginally below WS 50 to WS 45 during the last couple of weeks,suggesting that the impact of the tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman might be over.Competition among shipowners has been strong.Demand doesn't seem to be sufficient to absorb the supply concentrated in the region.The market doesn't expect rates to be boosted over the coming weeks.According to data from HIS Markit's Commodities at Sea,volumes of oil seem to have increased for VLCCs since the beginning of this month having surpassed 625 million barrels.Mea nwhile,volumes on Suezmaxes have been pushed marginally lower,while levels have been rather stable for Aframaxes.