信息技术是否替代了就业——基于中国上市公司的证据

Does Information Technology Replace Employment?——Evidence Based on China’s Listed Companies

基于我国上市公司2001-2017年的年度报告数据,运用广义最小二乘法随机效应模型,分析了信息技术资本积累对我国上市公司就业的影响。结果表明,上市公司信息技术资本投资对于就业具有显著的正影响,硬件资本对就业人数的影响更大,但随着时间的推移,软件资本的作用越来越明显;除了农业外,对其他主要行业就业都有显著的促进作用;员工学历水平提高,会抑制硬件资本对就业的需求,但会促进软件资本对就业的需求。因此,我国上市公司仍要加大信息技术投资,特别是要加大对软件技术的投资,这也是上市公司适应机器人、人工智能等新一代信息技术挑战的重要应对措施;同时,还要重视对人力资本等无形资产的投资,与信息技术更好互补。从国家层面来说,信息技术投资将是实现就业优先政策的重要推动力之一。

Based on the annual report data of listed companies in China from 2001 to 2017, the Generalized Least Squares Random Effects Model is used to analyze the impact of information technology capital accumulation on the employment of listed companies in China. The results show that the information technology capital investment of listed companies has a significant positive impact on employment, and the impact of hardware capital on employment is greater, but the role of software capital becomes more and more obvious over time. Industry employment has a significant role in increased. At the same time,the improvement of employee qualifications will inhibit the demand for hardware capital for employment, but will promote the demand for software capital for employment. Therefore, China’s listed companies still need to increase investment in information technology, especially to increase investment in software technology. This is also an important response measure for listed companies to adapt to the challenges of nextgeneration information technologies such as robots and artificial intelligence. At the same time, it is also important to pay attention to Investment in intangible assets such as human capital is better complemented by information technology.At the national level, information technology investment will be one of the important drivers for achieving employment priority policies.