基于复杂网络的两栖水上飞机起降安全风险演化

Safety Risk Evolution of Amphibious Seaplane During Takeoff and Landing——Based on Complex Network

为了揭示两栖水上飞机起降安全风险的演化规律,有效预防水上飞机起降安全风险,以风险因素间的作用路径为基础,构建两栖水上飞机起降安全风险演化的有权有向网络拓扑结构,验证了该复杂网络的无标度特性;采用Matlab编程仿真分析网络在随机攻击和蓄意攻击情况下的功能鲁棒性和结构鲁棒性;对比度值攻击、介数值攻击、接近度中心性值攻击及综合值攻击下的网络鲁棒性效果,识别网络的关键风险因素,提出断链控制策略。研究结果表明:两栖水上飞机起降安全风险网络是无标度网络;该网络对随机攻击具有较强鲁棒性,对蓄意攻击具有脆弱性,且度值攻击的结构鲁棒性最差,综合值攻击的性能鲁棒性最差;综合值较高的节点是网络的关键风险因素,优先处置关键节点有助于预防起降事故。

In order to reveal the evolution mechanism of the taking off and landing safety risk of amphibious seaplane, and effectively prevent the safety risk of seaplane in taking off and landing stage, the right-oriented network topology structure of the amphibious seaplane take-off and landing safety risk evolution was constructed based on the action path between risk factors, and regression analysis was used to verify the scale-free characteristics of the complex network. The node degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality and comprehensive value were applied to identify the key risk factors from different perspectives. Matlab was used to analyze the functional robustness and structural robustness of the network under random and deliberate attacks. The robustness effects of degree attack, betweenness centrality attack, closeness centrality attack, comprehensive attack were contrasted, the key risk factors were identified and the chain-breaking control strategy was proposed. The results show that the safety risk network of amphibious seaplane take-off and landing is a scale-free network;the robustness of the network under random attack is stronger than deliberate attack, and the structural robustness of the degree attack is the worst, and the performance robustness of the comprehensive value attack is the worst;nodes with higher comprehensive values are the key risk factors of the network, and priority disposal of key nodes can help prevent taking off and landing accidents.