基于SWAT模型的径流模拟与参数不确定性分析

Study on Runoff Simulation and Parameter Uncertainty Analysis Base on SWAT Model

以淮河上游黄泥庄流域为例,重点探讨SWAT模型径流模拟效果及模型参数不确定性。采用SUFI-2方法,分析模型参数不确定性,结果表明:CN2、ALPHA-BF、SOL-K等3个参数取值对模型结果有显著的影响。对比不同参数组的模拟结果,发现23组不同参数组的模拟的NSE在0.975~0.98之间,“异参同效”现象十分突出。分析模型模拟效果的不确定性,结果表明:整个模拟时段内大部分的实测点落在了95PPU的范围内,SUFI-2方法在SWAT模型的参数不确定性分析的适用性较好。

Huangnizhuang basin was selected as a study area for runoff simulation and parameter uncertainties analysis based on SWAT model.SUFI-2 was applied to analysis of parameter uncertainty,and results showed that CN2,ALPHA-BF and SOL-K had comparatively significant effects on runoff simulation.Comparing the simulation results of different parameter groups,it was found that the NSE values of 23 different parameter groups ranged from 0.975 to 0.98,the phenomena of"Equifinality"is very prominent.Analyzing the uncertainty of the simulation results,the simulation results showed that most measured points fell in the 95PPU zone during the simulation period,the SUFI-2 method was applicable in the parameter uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model.