基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据的东三省城市人口估算及精度分析

Urban population estimation and accuracy analysis of Three Northeastern Provinces based on DMSP/OLS night light data

我国是人口大国,随着经济的快速发展,人口问题也逐渐显著。人口的研究对于生态环境的可持续发展、城市的未来发展规划具有重要意义。鉴于此,本文以东三省为例,基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据和2010年六普人口数据,通过构建一种对人口进行空间化模拟的数学模型来模拟东三省各市人口,并进行精度分析。结果表明,本文所采用的数学模型能够较为精确的模拟出东三省大部分城市人口数,但对于个别特殊城市人口模拟误差略大,因此,在进行模拟时针对结果准确的城市可直接使用本文模型,对于特殊城市应相应进行参数调整。

Chinais a country with a large population.With the rapid paceof the economy development,the population problem has also become more prominent.The study of population is of great significance to the sustainable development of the ecological environment and the future development of the city.In view of this,taking the Three Northeastern Provinces as an example,based on the DMSP/OLS nighttime lighting data and the 6th population data in 2010,the population of each city in thethree northeastern provinces is simulated by constructing a mathematical model for spatial simulation of the population,and the accuracy analysis is carried out.The results show that the mathematical model used in this paper can accurately simulate the population of most of cities in the Three Northeastern Provinces,but the simulation error is slightly larger for individual special cities.Therefore,the model can be directly used for the cities with accurate results when conducting simulations.For special cities,the parameters should be adjusted its accordingly.