中国对外贸易的区域差异及环境效应分析——基于贸易规模与贸易质量的面板回归

Regional Differences and Environmental Effects of China’s Foreign Trade: Based on Panel Regression on the Scale and Quality of Trade

通过对不同区域对外贸易的分解,构建贸易规模与贸易质量模型,从对外贸易规模与质量视角出发,分析不同对外贸易维度对环境污染的影响。通过设定对外贸易区域差异与环境污染间的固定效应模型,对我国内地除西藏以外的30个省份对外贸易的环境效应进行计量分析。结果表明:(1)东部地区贸易规模与贸易质量都远超中、西部地区,而西部地区与中部地区贸易差异在2012年后逐渐减小。(2)对外贸易会显著地影响地区环境污染程度,环境污染程度会随着贸易规模的增加而增加,但会随着贸易质量的提升而下降,并且对外贸易的环境效应在不同区域存在异质性。(3)随着贸易规模的增加,东、中、西部地区污染排放均会上升,但东部地区最为明显;随着贸易质量的提升,东部地区环境污染改善最为明显,中西部地区环境也存在一定程度改善。(4)随着人口密集度的增加,东部地区环境显著改善,中部地区变化不明显,西部地区环境更加恶化,即东部地区“知识溢出”效应最为明显。

Based on the decomposition of foreign trade in different regions,this paper constructs the indicators of both size and quality of trade,and analyzes the impact of different dimensions of foreign trade on environmental pollution from the perspective of foreign trade scale and foreign trade quality.By setting a fixed effect model between the regional differences of foreign trade and environmental pollution,the paper analyze the environmental effects of foreign trade in 30 provinces in China's Mainland except Tibet.The results show that:(1)The trade scale and trade quality in the eastern region are far more than those in the central and western regions,while the gap between the western region and the central region get narrow gradually after 2012.(2)Foreign trade significantly affects the degree of regional environmental pollution.The trade scale is the leading factor,and the environmental effect of trade scale is different among different regions and different pollutant emissions.(3)The emissions in the eastern region will increase with the increasing of the trade scale,while the change of most pollutants will not be significant with the improvement of trade quality.The pollution in the central and western regions will only increase with the expansion of the trade scale.But on the contrary,the pollution will decrease when the quality of trade increases.(4)With the increase of population density,the environment in the eastern region was significantly improved,while the change in the central region was not obvious,and the environment in the western region was even worse,that is,the“knowledge spillover”effect was most obvious in the eastern region.