基于面板数据的中国土地流转时空演变规律及其驱动力分析

Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Driving Force Analysis of Land Circulation in China Based on Panel Data

基于2000—2017年全国农村固定观察点数据及社会经济统计数据,研究了全国及东、中、西部的土地流转时空演变规律,运用主成分分析法分析了各区域土地流转的驱动力。结果表明:从2000—2017年,全国及东、中、西部的土地总流转率持续上升,全国的土地总流转率从3.76%上升到16.01%,年均增长0.9%;东、中、西部的土地总流转率存在差异,从高到低依次为中部>东部>西部,东部的土地总流转率在2010年前大致与全国水平一致;2000—2017年全国及东、中、西部的土地转入、转出率基本都保持持续上升状态,在2009年后土地转出高于转入,上升速度较快;社会经济持续发展、农村劳动力转移及流转政策扶持是全国土地流转的主要驱动力,东部地区土地流转的主要驱动力是经济社会的快速发展,中、西部地区土地流转的主要驱动力是城镇化发展及耕地资源禀赋。在此基础上,探讨了今后土地流转的演变趋势及促进各区域土地流转的政策和建议。

Land circulation is the only way for agricultural modernization development.It is of great importance to analyze the law of land circulation evolution and driving force to promote land circulation and develop agriculture on a proper scale.Based on the data of 2000-2017 national rural fixed observation points and the social and economic statistical data,this paper reveals the national and eastern,central and western space-time evolution of the land circulation,and uses principal component analysis to analyze the driving force of the regional land circulation.The results show that from 2000 to 2017,the total land circulation rate in China and the east,central and western regions continued to increase,and the total land circulation rate in China increased from 3.76%to 16.01%with an annual growth rate of about 0.9%.There is a difference in the total land circulation rate in the east,the middle and the west.From high to low,it is the middle>the eastand>the west.From 2000 to 2017,the land transfer and transfer rate of the whole country and the east,central and western regions continued to keep rising.After 2009,the land transfer rate was higher than the transfer rate,and the increase rate was faster.Social and economic sustainable development,rural labor transfer and circulation policy support are the main driving force of land circulation,the eastern region land circulation main driving force is the rapid development of economic and social,and the western region dominant driving force of land circulation are urbanization development and cultivated land resource endowment;On this basis,the evolution trend of land circulation in the future and the policies and suggestions to promote land circulation in various regions are discussed.