“十三五”以来电力消费增长原因分析及中长期展望

Research on the Reasons of the Growth of Electricity Consumption during the13th Five-Year Plan Period and Medium-and Long-term Perspective

“十三五”以来,受国内外多种复杂因素影响,中国电力消费超预期增长。深入分析电力消费快速增长的原因,剖析中长期电力需求的影响因素,科学研判未来电力需求增长趋势,对电力工业高质量发展具有重要意义。分析“十三五”以来电力消费增长原因的基础上,综合考虑新形势下影响中长期电力需求的主要因素,采用中长期电力需求预测模型对2020—2050年中国电力需求进行展望。在加速电气化情景下,预计2020、2030、2035、2050年全社会用电量分别达到7.7万亿、11.1万亿、12.2万亿、13.9万亿kW·h,2015—2020、2020—2035、2035—2050年全社会用电量年均增速分别为6.1%、3.1%、0.9%,2050年电能占终端能源的比重达到45.2%。

China's electricity consumption has experienced an over-expected growth since the 13th Five-Year Plan period due to complicated factors. It is of great significance for the high-quality development of the power industry to deeply analyze the reasons of the rapid growth of power consumption, the influencing factors of medium-and long-term power demand, and scientifically forecast the trend of electricity demand growth. Based on the analysis of the reasons of the growth of electricity consumption during the 13th Five-Year Plan, this paper comprehensively considers the main factors affecting the medium- and long-term electricity demand under the new situations, and then adopts the medium- and long-term model to forecast the electricity demand from 2020 to 2050 in China. It is estimated that with the consideration of the accelerated electrification scenario, the electricity demand will reach to 7 700, 11 100, 12 200, and 13 900 TW·h in 2020, 2030, 2035, and 2050, respectively;and the average annual growth rates will be 6.1%, 3.1%, and 0.9% in 2015-2020, 2020-2035, and 2035-2050, respectively. In 2050, the electricity will account for about 45.2% in the terminal energy consumption.