基于综合赋权法和模糊层次分析法的输电线路异物挂线故障率模型

Model of Failure Rate of Hanging up Foreign Matter for Power Transmission Lines Based on Composite Weighting Method and Fussy Analytic Hierarchy Process

针对传统的异物挂线风险评价中定性分析以及定量分析不够全面的缺点,建立了风灾下输电线路异物挂线综合评价体系,对异物挂线风险进行定性定量分析。采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)确定异物挂线影响因子指标体系,并采用改进层次分析法和德尔菲法结合的综合赋权法确定各指标的权重。结合模糊数学理论,根据不同的隶属度函数确定方法,建立了适合不同子指标因素的隶属度函数,以此形成了异物挂线故障概率计算模型。

In view of incomplete qualitative and quantitative analysis in the traditional assessment of risk of hanging up foreign matter, this paper established a comprehensive assessment system for the risk of hanging up foreign mater in a windstorm disaster. The proposed method used the fussy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to determine the system of indicators for the affecting factors of hanging up foreign matter, and the composite weighting method combining the improved analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method was adopted to determine the weight of each indicator. Based on the fuzzy mathematic theory as well as different determination methods for subordinating degree functions, this paper established subordinating degree functions suitable to different sub-indicators, thus setting up a model for calculating failure probability of hanging up foreign matter.