考虑降雨量影响的径流式小水电计划出力校正方法研究

Research on Planned Output Correction Method for Small Run-off Hydropower Stations Considering Effect of Rainfall Capacity

径流式小水电受降雨影响,出力具有很强的不确定性,小水电计划出力往往严重偏离实际出力,影响了多小水电地区的短期负荷预测准确率。为降低小水电计划出力与实际出力的偏差,提高计划出力的准确率,提出了一种考虑降雨影响的小水电计划出力的校正方法。将出力偏差分解为水平偏差和增量偏差后,分别进行校正,以实际出力的变化趋势和波动情况校正水平偏差,然后考虑增量偏差与降雨量的关系进行建模校正。以云南滇西北某小水电出力为例进行了验证,结果表明,方法具有良好的校正效果和适用性。

As small run-off hydropower is influenced by rainfall, its output has a strong uncertainty and its planned output often deviates greatly from actual output, thus affecting the accuracy of short-term load forecast in regions with plenty of small hydropower. In order to reduce the difference between planned output and actual output of small hydropower and raise the accuracy of output planning, this paper proposed a correction method for planned output of small hydropower considering the effect of rainfall. The output deviation was decomposed into horizontal deviation and incremental deviation, which were then corrected respectively. The horizontal deviation was corrected according to the variation trend and fluctuation of actual output, and modeling correction was conducted under consideration of the relationship between incremental deviation and rainfall capacity. Verification was made in a case study of output from a certain small hydropower station located in the northwest of Yunnan, and the results indicated that the proposed approach had an excellent correction effect and applicability.