对“一带一路”国家对外投资支点选择:基于金融生态环境视角

The Choice of China’s Foreign Investment Fulcrum Countries: Based on the Analysis of "the Belt and Road" Countries

如何选择投资支点国家来推动"一带一路"建设是当前亟需解决的问题。文章的理论分析表明,将东道国区位优势与OFDI效率两项定量指标作为支点国家选择标准更具有科学性。而通过实证分析发现,"一带一路"国家具备的市场、能源、政治关系及自由贸易的优势更能够吸引中国投资,但目前技术获取型投资还会受到多种因素的制约。在对沿线国家金融生态评估的基础上,进一步通过实证检验发现,不同区位特征的国家的金融生态环境均能够影响中国在当地的OFDI效率,两指标呈显著的正相关关系。因此文章认为应选择金融生态环境较好且区位优势明显及OFDI效率较高的国家作为支点国家,通过打造利益共同体推进"一带一路"建设的深化。

How to choose investment fulcrum countries to promote the construction of " the Belt and Road" is a problem that needs to be solved. Based on the relevant theoretical research,this paper believes that the host country’s location advantage and OFDI efficiency should be used as the criteria for choosing fulcrum countries. Through the empirical analysis of Heckman selection model,China tends to provide sustained investment to countries with low income,abundant resources,high levels of technology,friendly political relations and open trade. However,technology acquisition investment is still restricted by many factors. After clustering analysis of countries,the extended SFA model and assessment of financial ecology show that all the financial eco-environment of countries with different location characteristics can affect the efficiency of OFDI by affecting their capital allocation capacity. In general,OFDI efficiency is positively correlated with quality of financial eco-environment. Therefore,this paper believes that the fulcrum countries in " the Belt and Road" which should have better financial environment and higher OFDI efficiency,combining with the location advantages,would create a community of interests and gradually promote the construction of " the Belt and Road" in the region.