中长期视角下的法国经济增长路径

France’s Economic Growth Path:An Analysis from a Mid-Long Term Perspective

2018年的法国经济增长相比2017年出现了明显下降,各项宏观经济指标也明显转差。表面看是受到一系列国内外短期因素的拖累,但从长期来看其实是由于法国经济出现了严重的结构性问题,包括资本、劳动和技术等生产要素都面临着长期性的供给不足,导致微观层面的企业竞争力不断下降。马克龙上台后的锐意改革给法国经济带来了新的希望和令人欣慰的改变,但也面临着包括来自中下层民众抵触和外部经济环境不确定的风险。改革能否最终取得实质性成果还将取决于改革方案在时机、对象和节奏等方面的设计。本文首先从短期和中长期角度对法国经济的形势和趋势进行盘点,从中分析阻碍法国经济增长的根本性和长期因素,并尝试对未来中长期法国经济的走向做出基本判断。

Compared with 2017, the French economic growth in 2018 has decreased significantly, and the macroeconomic indicators have also declined significantly. On the surface, it is affected by a series of short-term factors at home and abroad, but in the long run. it is due to serious structural problems in the French economy, including the shortage of long-term supply of capital, labor and technology, which leads to the decline of the competitiveness of enterprises at the micro level. Macron's intense reform has brought new hope and gratifying changes to the French economy, but it also faces risks of conflict from the lower and middle classes and uncertainties in the external economic environment. Whether the reform can ultimately achieve substantive results will also pend on the design of the reform plan in terms of timing, object and rhythm. We first takes an inventory of the situation and trends of the French economy from the shortterm and medium-term perspectives, analyze the fundamental and long-term factors that hinder the economic growth of France, and try to make a basic judgment on the future direction of the French economy.