马克龙欧盟改革的前景

The Prospects of Macron’s EU Reform

近年来,债务危机、难民问题和恐怖主义困扰欧洲,欧盟发展遭受挫折,一体化进程处于不进则退的关键阶段。面对危机,法国总统马克龙进行国内改革的同时积极推动欧盟改革,提出了以经济和安全为核心的综合改革方案,借助"多速欧洲"策略加以推进。这一改革是否能够取得成功,除了受法国国内政治经济局势的影响外,还取决于能否巩固好"法德轴心",实现与欧盟其他国家的团结,以及协调同跨大西洋联盟的关系。就目前来看,由于欧洲内部的意见分歧以及严峻的法国国内局势,马克龙欧盟改革的核心部分短期内难以取得突破,而在一些具体的技术性领域可能取得一定成果。

In recent years, the debt crisis, the refugee problem and terrorism have plagued Europe. The coherence of European Union has suffered a series of challenges and the integration process is at a crucial make or break stage. In the face of the crisis, French President Macron actively promoted EU reforms while carrying out domestic reforms and put forward a comprehensive reform plan centered around the economy and security. The success of his reform depends not only on a rebound in domestic economic conditions but also on whether he could consolidate the Axis of France and Germany, and achieve solidarity with the rest of the European Union and coherence within the transatlantic alliance. At present, due to the divergence of opinions within Europe and challenging domestic circumstances, Macron's EU reform seems unlikely to achieve much of a breakthrough in the short term. On the other hand, he might come to make some progresses in some specific technical areas.