基于传染病模型的电网扰动传播动力学分析

Dynamic Analysis of Disturbance Propagation in Power Grid Based on an Epidemic Model

研究电网扰动传播动力学行为对大电网安全稳定运行具有重要作用。该文在研究电网扰动传播动力学时尝试借助生物学中成熟的传染病模型进行研究。首先,在类比传染病模型的基础上,提出电网扰动传播强度的概念;进一步利用复杂网络理论对复杂电力系统网络进行拓扑分析,利用随机矩阵理论对电网时空数据进行关联关系分析;最后,基于数据驱动建立电网扰动传播动力学模型,对电网扰动传播行为进行预测。仿真结果表明,所提模型是传统电网扰动传播分析的有效补充,为电网扰动传播动力学行为分析提供新途径。

Study on the dynamic behavior of disturbance propagation is important for the safety and stability of power grid. The research of the dynamic disturbance analysis attempts to use mature epidemic model of biology. First, based on the analogy epidemic model and the transmission of the grid disturbance, the concept of disturbance transmission intensity was put forward. Furthermore, the complex network theory was used to analyze the complex network topology of the power system, and the random matrix theory was used to analyze the relationship between the spatial and temporal data of the power grid. At last, the dynamic model of power grid disturbance propagation based on data driven was established. The simulation shows that the proposed model can effectively supplement the traditional power system disturbance propagation analysis, and also can analyze the dynamic behavior of power grid.