北京市碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Kuznets Curve of Carbon Emission in Beijing

自改革开放以来,我国经济高速发展,但是随之而来的碳排放问题也日趋突出。本文以传统的环境库兹涅茨模型为基础,对北京市1980-2016年的碳排放量与经济增长的关系进行了研究,并考虑了产业结构、能源强度和城镇化水平三个控制变量对碳排放的影响,建立了扩展的库兹涅茨模型进行综合分析。研究结果表明:第一,北京市碳排放量与经济增长之间存在倒N型关系,且目前处于递增阶段;第二,北京市碳排放量还受到产业结构、能源强度和城镇化率的影响。第二产业所占比重和能源强度对碳排放有正向的拉高作用,城镇化率对碳排放有拉低的作用。最后本文提出了对应的政策建议。

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has developed at a high speed, but the carbon e-mission problem has become increasingly prominent. Based on the traditional environmental Kuznets model,this paper studies the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Beijing from 1980 to2016, and considers the effects of three control variables, industrial structure, energy intensity and ur-banization level, on carbon emissions. An extended Kuznets model is established for comprehensive analysis.The results show that there is an inverted N-type relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Beijing, and the carbon emissions in Beijing are also affected by industrial structure, energy intensity and urbanization rate. The impact of the proportion of secondary industry and energy intensity have positive effect on carbon emission, and urbanization rate has lowering effect on carbon emission. Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.