预期及政策因素对我国住宅市场价格影响——以长江三角洲为例

The Housing Market with the Expected Impact and Policy Factors——For Example of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

在我国城市群区域经济发展大势下,本文以长江三角洲城市群为例,利用Matlab构建包含预期及政策因素的空间误差模型。研究表明长三角城市群的住宅价格整体由预期及投机性需求因素决定,且市场参与者的预期因素还会对政策调控产生一定负反馈作用。

With the increasingly economic transfer effect of urban agglomerations in China,taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as an example, this paper constructs a spatial error model including expectation and policy factors by Matlab tool. The results show that the housing price volatility of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is determined by the expected and speculative demand.In another way,the expected factors of market participants also offset the implementation of real estate policy regulation to some extent.