经济增长方式转变与能源消费强度差异的收敛性——基于中国2001—2016年省级面板数据

Convergence analysis of interregional differences of economic growth pattern and energy intensity:An empirical study based on provincial data from 2001 to 2016 in China

经济增长方式转变与能源使用效率作为经济高质量发展的两大重要方面,其地区间的收敛性研究对于解决当下社会主要矛盾、提升发展质量和居民幸福感具有重要意义。本文通过引入经济增长集约化程度作为经济增长方式转变的衡量指标,以中国2001—2016年各省(市、区)数据为样本,构建滞后调整的面板数据模型,对不同地区间经济增长方式转变差异的收敛性、能源消费强度差异与经济增长方式转变差异间的收敛关系进行实证研究,并分析了形成的原因。研究结果显示:①在全国范围和东、中、西三大区域内,经济增长集约化程度均存在收敛趋势;②在全国范围和中、西部区域内,能源消费强度差异随增长集约化程度差异的收敛呈发散趋势;在东部区域内,能源消费强度差异随增长集约化程度差异的收敛而收敛;③产业结构、能源与非能源工业固定资产投资结构、能源价格等在不同区域范围内的差异性,是导致能源消费强度差异随增长集约化程度而在不同区域范围内呈现不同变化特征的重要原因。

The economic growth pattern transformation and energy use efficiency are the two important aspects of high-quality development, their convergence analysis among different regions has a great significance to resolving the main social conflicts effectively, enhancing the quality of economic development and residents’ happiness. This study iintroduces the intensive degree of economic growth as an indicator of economic growth pattern transformation and construcs a panel data model with lagging adjustment based on the provincial data from 2001 to 2016 in China, to analyze the convergence of economic growth pattern transformation among different regions, the convergence relationship between the difference of energy consumption intensity and the difference of economic growth pattern transformation among different regions. The reasons of the observed relationship are analyzed from the perspective of influencing factors of the transformation of economic growth pattern. The conclusions are as follows:(1) In the whole country and in the three regions of the east, the middle and the west, the intensive degree of economic growth tends to converge;(2) In the whole country and in the regions of the middle and the west, energy consumption intensity shows a divergent trend with the convergence of economic growth intensive degree;In eastern region, energy consumption intensity shows a converging trend as economic growth intensive degree converges;(3) Differences in industrial structure, fixed asset investment structure of energy and non-energy industries, and energy price in different regions, are important reasons for the different convergence characteristics that of the energy consumption intensity changes along with the intensive degree of economic growth in different regions.