世界石油格局重大变化下中东地缘政治研究

Geopolitics of the Middle East under major changes in the world oil pattern

美国随着石油自给,其对中东投入力量下降,中东地缘政治斗争形成了什叶派、阿拉伯逊尼派角力与大国能源博弈相交织的矛盾主线.阿拉伯逊尼派联合以色列为一方,什叶派联合亲穆兄会的土耳其、卡塔尔为另一方,美俄对两方各有侧重.双方在叙利亚战争、也门战争、利比亚战争等地区热点展开对局,什叶派实现了历史性逆转.为打击什叶派扩张势头,美国退出伊核协议,开启对伊新一轮制裁,伊朗通过代理人展开反击,地区形势高度紧张.受地缘政治斗争影响,中东石油格局发生变化,沙特阿拉伯对世界石油供应的领导权受到美国挑战,伊拉克将成长为欧佩克第二大产油国,卡塔尔将引领中东天然气产业发展.建议中国积极开展大国能源外交,发展石油交易相关货币金融体系,保障供应安全.

As America declined focus in the Middle East after its oil self-sufficiency,the geopolitical struggle has created a main line of contradictions between the Shiite and Arab Sunni rivalry combined with the energy game of the great powers.Arab Sunni countries united Israel as one side and the Shiite forces united pro-Muslim Brotherhood countries ofTurkey,Qatar as the other side with the United States and Russia on both sides.The two sides involved in wars in Syria,Yemen and Libya,and the Shiites achieved a historic reversal.In an effort to counter Shiite expansion,the U.S.pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and opened a new round of sanctions.Iran countered through its proxies,and the regional tension is quite high.Influenced by geopolitical struggles,the oil landscape in the Middle East has changed.Saudi Arabia's leadership of the world's oil supply has been challenged by the United States,Iraq will grow into OPEC's second-largest oil producer,and Qatar will lead the development of the Middle Eastern gas industry.It is suggested that China actively carries out energy diplomacy among large countries,develops the monetary and financial systems related to oil transactions,and ensures the security of its oil supply.