中国农民收入结构的演化逻辑及其增收效应测度

The Evolutionary Logic of Chinese Farmers’ Income Structure and Measurement of Their Income Growth Effect

运用1984-2017年中国农民收入数据,对农民收入结构变动值和农民收入结构变动的增收效应分别进行测度,研究发现:(1)农民收入来源逐渐多元化,收入增长的源泉由过去单纯依靠家庭经营性收入增长转变为近年来各项收入的协同增长,但农民收入的结构与城镇居民相比仍然存在不合理之处。(2)农民工资性收入对农民增收的累计贡献力度已于2010年超越了家庭经营性收入,将来亦或是在很长一段时间以内,必然会与家庭经营性收入作为两大主要收入来源而“并驾齐驱”地带动农民收入持续、快速、稳定增长。(3)长久以来,农民财产性收入和转移性收入因为具有不确定性和暂时性特征,又非农民的传统性收入,因此对农民增收并没有起到决定性作用,但新世纪以来,两者对农民增收的相对贡献率之和已经从2%上升到了16.02%。上述结论意味着,如今农民收入问题已经演化成了一个越来越多地与非农密切相关联的问题,农民持续增收离不开收入结构优化和各项收入协同增长,其核心就变成了如何加快推进农业现代化进程、解决农民非农就业、支持农民创新创业、赋予农民更完备的产权权能、建立城乡一体化的社会保障制度。

Chinese farmers income data from 1984 to 2017 were used to measure the variation value of famers income structure and the income increment effect of farmers income structure change. The research has the following findings.(1) Farmers incomes are gradually from diversified sources. The source of income increase was simply relying on the growth of household business income in the past, which has changed to the coordinated income increase from various sources in recent years. But there still exist irrationality in the structure of farmers income compared with urban residents.(2) Farmers income from wage and salary that accumulatively contribute to farmers income increment has exceeded that from family business income in 2010. It will inevitably serve as two main sources of income in pace with family business income to mobilize farmers incomes to grow continuously, rapidly and steadily in the future or in a long period.(3) For a long time, farmers income from property and transfer income as non-traditional income of farmers have not played a decisive role in their income increment due to the uncertainty and provisionality. However, in the new age, the sum of the relative contribution of both to farmers income increment has increased from 2% to 16.02%. The above conclusion means that the issue of increasing farmers income has evolved into an issue with increasingly closer relation to non-agriculture. Farmers income cannot continuously increase without the optimization of income structure and the coordinated growth of various incomes. Thus, the core issue is how to accelerate the process of agricultural modernization, solve farmers non-agricultural employment, support farmers innovation and entrepreneurship, grant farmers more complete powers and functions of property rights, and establish urban-rural integrated social security system.