摘要
针对施工期土石坝在度汛期间安全和成本两个建设目标既相互联系又相互矛盾的问题,通过建立安全风险—成本风险综合评价模型,分析土石坝建设期间的安全风险,并定义确定性成本和不确定性成本进行不同风险水平下的成本风险分析,最后进行综合风险评价。将该评价模型应用于前坪水库围堰挡水阶段度汛方案的优势比选,得出按照100年一遇设计洪水加高围堰为最佳方案。该理论成果切实指导前坪水库2018年度汛工作,具有较好的科学性和实用性。
In view of two interconnected and contradictory problems of safety and cost in the construction period of earth-rock dams in flood season, a comprehensive safety risk-cost risk assessment model is established to analyze the safety risk of earth-rock dams during construction period, then the deterministic cost and uncertainty cost are defined to analyze the cost risk under different risk levels, and finally the comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. The evaluation model is applied to compare the flood handling schemes of cofferdam in the construction of Qianping Reservoir, and it is found that the best scheme is to increase the cofferdam according to the 100-year design flood. The research results have scientifically and effectively guided the flood handling of Qianping Reservoir in 2018.
作者
李宗坤
宗克强
张兆省
皇甫泽华
LI Zongkun;ZONG Keqiang;ZHANG Zhaosheng;HUANGFU Zehua(School of Water Conservancy & Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan, China;Henan Qianping Reservoir Construction Administration, Zhengzhou 450002, Henan, China)
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2019年第8期63-66,共4页
Water Power
基金
国家自然科学基金(51679222,51709239,51379192)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2018M632809)
河南省科技攻关项目(182102311070)
河南省水利科技攻关计划项目(GG201813)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(18A570007)
关键词
土石坝
施工期
施工阶段
安全
成本
综合风险
earth-rock dam
construction period
construction stage
safety
cost
comprehensive risk
