1986～2015年中国东北地区主要农业气象灾害变化特征

Characteristics of Major Agricultural Meteorological Disasters in Northeast China from 1986 to 2015

根据东北地区1986~2015年的受灾、成灾和绝收面积等统计数据,分析了黑龙江省、吉林省和辽宁省农业气象灾害损失率以及灾害波动性、灾害等级的变化特征。结果表明:东北地区干旱呈逐年加重的趋势,而低温冷害、风雹与洪涝呈现先增加后减小的趋势。辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省的干旱、洪涝、低温冷害及风雹综合平均损失率分别为11%~23%、11%~23.2%和8.7%~18.7%。辽宁省干旱最为严重,占总损失率70%,重灾每15年发生1次;其次为吉林省,占总损失率的60.8%,重灾每15年发生2次;黑龙江省最轻,为52.3%,但重灾发生较多,每15年发生2次。洪涝则黑龙江省最重,占总损失率33.4%,重灾发生次数较多,每15年发生2次;其次为吉林省,占总损失率25.6%,重灾10年1遇;辽宁省最轻,占20.7%,重灾15年发生1次。而风雹吉林省最重,占9.2%,重灾发生次数较多,10年1遇;其次为黑龙江省,占总损失率的8.1%,重灾15年1遇;辽宁省最轻,占6.3%。低温冷害最重区为黑龙江省,占总损失率6.2%,重灾发生为15年1遇;其次为吉林省,占4.4%,重灾发生次数较多,每10年发生1次;辽宁省最轻,占总损失率3%,重灾15年1遇。灾害变异系数表明,风雹与干旱为常态灾害,对农业生产的影响较大,而低温冷害与洪涝对农业生产的影响相比较小,但偶发性强,致灾强度大。

The paper analyzes loss rate, fluctuation and grade of agro-meteorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Liaoning Province according to the statistical data of induced area, affected area and no harvested area from 1986 to 2015. The results showed that the drought increased year by year, while the chilling injury, wind and hail increased first and then decreased in Northeast China. Combined integrated average loss rates of Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang Provinces were 11%-23%, 11%-23.2% and 8.7%-18.7%, respectively. Liaoning drought disaster was the most seriousdisaster, which was the 70% of total loss, and a major disaster in every 15 years. Relatively light disaster was in Jilin Province, and the drought loss rate was 60.8%. The lightest is in Heilongjiang, the drought loss rate was 52.3%. Flood disaster in Heilongjiang was the most seriousdisasters, with loss rate of 33.4%, but the number of major disasters occurred more, twice inevery 15 years. Relatively light disaster is Jilin Province, and the drought loss rate was 25.6%, with a major disaster in every 10 years. The lightest was Liaoning, and the flood loss rate was 20.7%, with a major disaster in every 15 years. Wind and hail disasters in Jilin were the most seriousdisasters, accounting for 9.2%, but the number of major disasters occurred more, once every 10 years. Relatively light disaster was Heilongjiang Province, and the drought loss rate was 8.1% with a major disaster in every 15 years. Liaoning was the lightest, and the drought loss rate was 6.3%. The most serious area of chilling injurywas in Heilongjiang, accounting for 6.2% with a major disaster in every 15 years. Jilin was 4.4% with a major disaster in once every 10 years. The lightest as Liaoning, and the drought loss rate was 3%, with a disaster in every 15 years. Major wind and hail and chilling injury in northeast China occurred once every ten to fifteen years. The coefficient of variation of the disaster showed that wind and hail and drought are normal disaster, which has a great impact on agricultural production.Butthe effects of chilling injury and flood were relatively small, with great annual variability and strong intensity.