金融发展对中国能源消费的动态经济增长门槛效应

The Dynamic Economic Growth Threshold Effect of Financial Development on China’s Energy Consumption

以中国30个省份为研究对象,把经济增长水平作为门槛变量,在考虑能源消费习惯效应的基础上,建立动态面板门槛模型以考察金融发展对人均能源消费的动态经济增长门槛效应。研究结果表明:金融发展虽能显著抑制人均能源消费,但当经济增长水平高于门槛值时,金融发展对人均能源消费的抑制作用有所减弱。金融发展对人均能源消费的抑制作用呈现衰弱趋势,东部地区金融发展对人均能源消费的负向影响较中西部地区更弱。在低经济增长水平门槛区间内,金融发展通过经济增长渠道能显著促进人均能源消费,但技术创新渠道并不顺畅;但当经济增长水平跨过门槛值时,金融发展却能通过经济增长渠道和技术创新渠道显著抑制人均能源消费。

Taking China's 30 provinces as the research subjects and based on the consideration of the habit effect of energy consumption,this paper sets up a dynamic panel threshold model and takes the economic growth level as the threshold variable to investigate the dynamic economic growth threshold effect of financial de velopment on per capita energy consumption.The results show that though financial development can significantly inhibit per capita energy consumption,when the level of economic growth is higher than the threshold value,the inhibitory effect of financial development on per capita energy consumption will become weaker.The inhibitory effect of financial development on per capita energy consumption presents a weaken trend,compared with the central and western regions,the financial development in the eastern region has a weaker effect on the per capita energy consumption.Within the threshold range of lower economic growth level,the financial development can significantly promote per capita energy consumption through economic growth channels,but the channels of technological innovation are not smooth.However,when the level of economic growth exceeds the threshold value,financial development can significantly curb per capita energy consumption through economic growth channels and technological innovation channels.