城市人口风险预警模型构建与实证

Construction and Demonstration of Urban Population Risk Forewarning Model

文章通过构建四川城市人口风险预警模型,在此基础上收集截面数据,以成都市为例,结合其发展实情设定特定的评价标准,对人口风险状况进行实证分析并做出预警判断。研究发现,作为西部的典型区域中心城市,成都市在当前及未来面临的主要人口内部风险仍然是人口数量风险,同时,城市人口与资源环境的外部风险形势相对突出。

This paper collects cross-section data on the basis of constructing the urban population risk forewarning model of Sichuan Province, and then takes Chengdu City as a case of study, and combines its actual development situation to set the specif-ic evaluation criteria, and makes empirical analyses and forewarning judgment with regard to population risk status. According to the research findings, Chengdu, as a typical regional hub city in western China, is still confronted with population quantity risk which is the major internal population risk at present and in the future. Meanwhile, the external risk situations of urban population and resource environment are relatively conspicuous.