长三角人口发展对雾霾污染的门槛效应

Threshold Effects of Population Development on Haze Pollution in Yangtze River Delta

人口发展变化兼具"规模"、"质量"和"结构"上的综合效应,选择常住人口城市化率、城市人均能源消费和产业结构分别作为规模、质量和结构的代表性变量,考察人口发展对长三角雾霾的门槛效应.结果显示:①人口发展因子对雾霾存在异质性影响,表现在质量因子对雾霾污染存在抑制效应,而规模因子和结构因子对雾霾排放具有促进效应;②人口发展因子对雾霾的影响存在单一门槛效应,在跨越门槛前后,城市化率对雾霾污染的效应由正转负,能源消费和产业结构对雾霾始终具有正效应,且影响程度不断增大;③人口发展代表性变量的交叉项对雾霾存在显著影响,表现在城市化与能源消费的交互项增加了雾霾污染,城市化与产业结构、产业结构与能源消费的交互项则抑制了雾霾排放.因此,在雾霾治理的同时要大力促进城市化与产业结构创新发展、产业结构与能源结构协同优化,实现人口发展与环境质量的和谐共生.

Population development has comprehensive effects of scale, quality and structure. This paper chooses the urbanization rate of permanent populations, per capita energy consumption and industrial structure as the representative variables of scale, quality and structure, respectively. Then the authors examine the threshold effects of three population development factors on haze in Yangtze River Delta. The results show that:(1 ) Population development factors have heterogeneous effects on haze, which are manifested in both the inhibition effects of quality factors and the promotion effects of scale and structure factors on haze;(2) Population development factors have single threshold effects on haze, which shows that before and after crossing the threshold, the effect of urbanization rate on haze changed from positive to negative;meanwhile, energy con sumption and industrial structure have always positive and increasi ng effects on haze;(3) The cross-terms between representative variables of population development displayed significant impacts on haze, which show that the interaction between urbanization and energy consumption increases haze pollutions, while the interactions between urbanization and industrial structure, industrial structure and energy consumption restrains haze emissions. The results imply that, during the process of haze control , more efforts need to be devoted to the innovative development of urbanization and industrial structure, and to the coordinate optimization of industrial structure and energy structure, so as to realize the harmonious coexistence of population development and environmental quality.