引入“Z记分法”下的我国中小板企业融资风险预警——基于Logistic模型的实证研究

Enterprise Financing Risk Early Warning of China’s SMEs Board under Z-score Method——Based on Empirical Research Logistic Model

通过引入“Z记分法”模型中的综合风险总判别分Z,结合以中小板企业2016—2018年财务指标为数据进行因子分析筛选后的公共因子,将两者代入Logistic模型中进行回归分析,得到含Z和不含Z情况下可供中小企业实行融资风险初步评估的两个预警模型,然后运用两个模型分别进行风险判别检验,结果显示含Z预警模型的总体预测准确率较高,判别效果较好。

This paper introduces the comprehensive risk judgment score Z in the"Z-score method", combined with the common factors which based on the result of the factor analysis of financial indicators data of small and medium-sized enterprises based on 2016 -2018, which is substituted into the Logistic model for regression analysis, and two early warning models for the initial assessment of financing risks for SMEs with and without Z are obtained, and then the two models are used for risk discrimination test. The results show that the overall prediction accuracy of the Z-warning model is higher and the discriminant effect is better.