僵尸企业的传染效应及作用机理

Research on the Infection Effect of Zombie Enterprises

本文通过利用2010—2016年制造业上市公司数据,构建双重固定效应模型,研究了加入担保网络的僵尸企业对担保网络内的其他正常企业的传染效应。实证结果表明,加入担保网络的僵尸企业的确存在传染效应,并且这一效应会导致正常企业的绩效下降。进一步的分析还显示,僵尸企业的传染效应最终会大幅提高正常企业成为僵尸企业的概率。本文研究结果说明化解行业的产能过剩问题,让僵尸企业出清市场,不仅应研究僵尸企业出清问题的本身,还应关注僵尸企业带来的传染效应。

This paper constructs a dual fixed effect model by using the 2010-2016 manufacturing listed company data,and studies the contagious effect of zombie companies joining the guarantee network on other normal enterprises in the guarantee network.The empirical results show that the zombie companies that join the guarantee network do have an infectious effect,and this effect will lead to a decline in the performance of normal enterprises.Further analysis also shows that the contagious effects of zombie companies will ultimately increase the probability that normal enterprises will become zombie companies.The results of this study illustrate the problem of overcapacity in the industry and allow zombie companies to clear the market.They should not only study the problem of zombie enterprises clearing out the problem,but also pay attention to the contagious effects brought by zombie enterprises.