舆论对国际贸易的影响:以美国进口贸易为例

Public Opinion and International Trade: An Example of US Import

本文利用全球事件、语言和音调数据库中的新闻数据来构建舆论影响力指标,基于扩展贸易引力模型,研究美国境内舆论环境对其进口贸易的影响。结果发现,美国舆论环境发生变化会对其进口贸易产生一定影响。舆论环境恶化会促使美国进口贸易下降;但舆论环境趋好对美国进口贸易的影响并不显著。此外,脉冲响应函数和方差分解的结果表明,负面舆论对美国进口贸易的影响见效较快,且这种影响可持续近20个月。进一步将该影响分不同进口产品进行考察时发现,舆论对美国进口的影响程度具有较为明显的产品异质性,加工程度越复杂、差异化程度越大的产品受到的负面舆论影响越大,而同质化程度较高的产品以及中间品受到正面舆论的影响更大。

Based on the extended trade gravity model. this paper uses news data from the GDELT database to construct a public opinion impact index and study the impact of the public opinion environment in the United States on the trade volume of US imports. The study finds that the public opinion environment in the United States with respect to other countries has deteriorated since 2(X)8. Changes in this environment have an impact on US import trade. A deterioration of the public opinion environment leads to a reduction in US import trade, while an improvement in that environment has the opposite effect. However, it is observed that the intensity of the influence of negative public opinion is greater than that of an intrinsically positive one. Since 2(X)8, the environment of US public opinion has deteriorated, reducing to some extent the US trade deficit. In line with the impulse response function and the variance decomposition results, it is also shown that the impact of negative public opinion on trade in US imports has a short-term effect, while the duration of the influence of positive public opinion is extended. A deeper analysis determines that the degree of influence of public opinion on US imports is clearly heterogeneous in terms of product type. The more complex the processing degree, the more differentiated are the products a fleeted by negative public opinion, the greater the degree of homogenisation, and the more affected the intermediate goods are by positive public opinion.