非珠三角机动车尾气控制措施协同效果评估

Assessment of Vehicle Emission Reduction Measures Based on the Analysis of Co-control in the Non-Pearl River Delta Region

广东非珠三角机动车保有量的大量增长带来了交通尾气污染物和CO2的高强度、集中性排放,严重影响空气质量以及碳排放治理工作。因此,迫切需要设计更加高效可行的碳减排政策来控制交通尾气污染物以及CO2的排放。该文基于平均行驶里程法预测了非珠三角地区2015-2020年5种污染物(CO、VOCs、NOx、PM2.5和CO2)在不采取专门控制措施情景下的排放量,并根据现有经济、技术和政策规划设计了5种减排情景,计算不同减排情景下的减排量,定量分析了不同减排情景对多污染物的协同控制效应及其成本效益。研究表明:(1)在不采取专门的控制措施下,2015-2020年污染物排放量持续增长,2020年CO2排放量将达到5 488.6×10^4t,相比2014年增长了141%;(2)在各类减排情景下,污染物排放量呈现不同程度的削减(VOCS除外),其中,2020年提高燃油品质对NOx(削减率37%)和CO(削减率41%)的削减率最高;(3)提高排放标准对CO2和PM2.5的协同控制效应最好,公交优先对CO2和NOx的协同控制效应最好;(4)综合考虑对各污染物的减排效果,提高排放标准成本效益最优,对空气污染物和CO2的平均减排率为29%,平均单位成本为0.13元/g。研究显示,由于低费效比及其对多污染物的协同控制效应好,提高排放标准在研究中是最优的污染物减排措施。

High-intensity and concentrated emissions of motor vehicle exhaust pollutants and carbon dioxide occur due to the rapid growth of motor vehicles in the non-Pearl River Delta region.This severely influences air quality and the control of carbon emissions.Therefore,it is urgent to design more efficient and feasible policies to control emissions of traffic exhaust pollutants and CO2 in the non-Pearl River Delta region.This research aims at providing a possible solution to the emissions control issue.Using the average mileage method,this research first predicts the emissions of five pollutants(CO,VOCs,NOx,PM2.5 and CO2 from 2015 to 2020 under the assumption that no special controlling measure is taken.Then five emission reduction scenarios are designed in view of the current economy,technology and policy situation.The emission reduction in each scenario is calculated,and the effects of co-control and cost-benefits on multiple pollutants in different scenarios are quantitatively analyzed.The results indicate that pollutant emissions will continue to increase from 2015 to 2020 if no controlling measure is taken,with CO2 emissions reaching 548.86 million tons in 2020,an increase of 140%compared to that of 2014.Under different types of reduction scenarios,the amount of pollutant emission reduction varies(except VOCs).In particular,improving fuel quality is the best measure to reduce NOx(reduction rate 37%)and CO(reduction rate 41%)in 2020.Raising emission standards brings the best co-control effect between CO2 and PM2.5,and prioritizing public transportation brings the best cocontrol effect between CO2 andNOx.Taking into account of the emission reduction effect of various pollutants,the cost-effectiveness of raising emission standards is the highest,with average reduction rate as 29%and average cost as 0.13 yuan/g.The research shows that,due to its low cost-effectiveness ratio and ideal effect on the coordinated control of multiple pollutants,raising emission standards is the best pollutant emissions reduction measure.