实现大气环境高质量路径多情景分析——以南京市为例

Realization Paths of Atmospheric Environmental High Quality in Multiple Scenario Analysis in Nanjing City

在界定城市生态环境高质量内涵的基础上,分析了南京市大气环境状态特征,设计了惯性发展、规划发展、协调发展3种发展情景,分析了不同情境下南京市大气环境高质量的实现路径及政策需求。结果表明:惯性发展情景实现难度较大,需要突破资源能源瓶颈、产业发展惯性以及大规模治理资金等约束;规划发展情景下实现存在较大不确定性,主要受规划实施成效和社会共治体系建设等影响;协调发展情景下实现大气环境高质量可能性最大,需要建立经济社会发展的大气环境影响效应动态评估机制,优化产业结构、能源结构、运输结构和用地结构,完善生态环境政策制度。

On the basis of the connotation of urban ecological environmental high quality,this paper analyzed the condition of the atmospheric environment in Nanjing City.Three different development scenarios,the inertial development scenario,planning development scenario and coordination development scenario,were designed,and we analyzed the policy demand and realization paths of atmospheric environmental high quality under different scenarios in Nanjing City.The results show that,the inertial development scenario can′t achieve the objective of atmospheric environmental high quality considering the bottleneck problem of energy resource,industry development and large amounts of investment for pollutant control.There are uncertainties in planning implementation and co-governance in recovery of atmospheric pollution.It is feasible to achieve the objective of atmospheric environmental high quality on the condition of coordination development scenario.Dynamic evaluation mechanism about the effect of economical society development on atmospheric environment should be established.Meanwhile it is necessary to optimize industry structure,energy structure,transport structure and land utilization structure,and to improve eco-environment policy system.