广州市城市园林绿地动态变化

Dynamic Change of City Greenland in Guangzhou

城市园林绿地是城市生态系统的重要组成部分,具有极其重要的社会效益、环境效益和经济效益。以1949年以来广州市城市园林绿地规模为研究对象,分析了其与地区生产总值、第一产业增加值、第二产业增加值、第三产业增加值、常住人口、常住非农业人口、建成区面积、道路总长度等驱动因素之间的相关性,并拟合了一元线性回归方程和二元线性回归方程。结果表明,城市园林绿地规模与各驱动因素之间存在着显著的线性相关,拟合的线性方程拟合优度均较高,其中以建成区面积和常住人口为自变量的二元线性回归方程拟合优度最好。基于研究结果,预测了未来广州市城市园林绿地规模,旨在为相关规划、计划等提供参考依据。

As an important part of urban ecosystem,city greenland is of extremely important social,environmental and economic benefits.In this paper,taking Guangzhou’s city greenland scale since 1949 as the research object.The correlation was analyzed between city greenland and driving factors,such as regional gross domestic product,added value of primary industry,added value of secondary industry,added value of tertiary industry,resident population,resident non-agricultural population,construction land area,total road length.Simple linear regression equations and binary linear regression equations were fitted.Results showed that there were significant linear correlations between city greenland scale and driving factors,the goodness of fit was all very high,among which the binary linear regression equation with construction and resident population as independent variables was the best.Based on the research results,the scale of Guangzhou’s city greenland scales in the future were predicted in order to provide a reference for relevant programming and planning.