基于气候适宜度的水稻发育期预报模型

Prediction Model of Rice Developmental Phase Based on Climatic Suitability

利用昆明1994—2012年水稻发育期观测资料和地面气象观测资料,计算各发育阶段综合气候适宜度,构建基于气候适宜度的水稻发育期预报模型。结果表明,各发育阶段间隔日数预报模型预测值与实测值平均绝对误差均在3d以内,其中拔节—孕穗期平均绝对误差为0;其次为三叶—返青、孕穗—抽穗、乳熟—成熟期平均绝对误差均为1d;返青—分蘖、分蘖—拔节期平均绝对误差为2~3d。全生育期预测值与实测值平均绝对误差为1d。预报模型模拟效果较好,可在水稻发育期预报业务中推广应用。

Based on the observed data of rice developmental phase and weather data from 1994 to 2012 in Kunming,the comprehensive climatic suitability at each developmental phase was calculated to construct prediction model of rice developmental phase.The average absolute error between the predicted and measured values of the prediction model of the interval days of each development phase was within 3 days all.The average absolute error of the joint-booting stage was 0,followed by the three leaves-returning,booting-heading,milking maturity-mature stage,the average absolute error was 1 d,and the returning-tillering,tillering -jointing stage were 2-3 d last.The average absolute error between the predicted and measured values of the whole growth period was 1 d.The prediction model had a good predicted effect and can be popularized and applied in the prediction business of rice developmental stages.