安徽省外出农民工数量预测研究——基于IOWA算子组合预测模型

Research on Forecasting the Number of Outgoing Migrant Workers in Anhui Province Based on IOWA Operator Combination Forecasting Model

为探讨安徽省外出农民工人数的变化趋势,搜集2013—2017年安徽省外出农民工人数,基于IOWA算子组合预测模型,将一次指数平滑法和灰色预测法2种单项预测方法组合,对未来安徽省外出农民工数量进行预测。从平均绝对误差、平均相对误差和均方误差3个指标考察发现组合预测模型的效果要优于单项预测;从预测得到的结果来看,2018年和2019年安徽省外出农民工数量将分别达1446.650万、1477.920万人,安徽省外出务工人数呈现持续增长的趋势。对此,安徽省不但要发展本省经济,鼓励农民工返乡创业,而且要建立完善的社会保障制度,让已经外出的农民工享受到同等的医疗保障和养老保障权利,实现社会公平。

In order to explore the changing trend of the number of outgoing migrant workers in Anhui Province, we collected the number of migrant workers in Anhui Province from 2013 to 2017. Based on IOWA operator combination forecasting model, two single forecasting methods, first exponential smoothing method and grey forecasting method, were combined to forecast the number of migrant workers in Anhui Province in the future. From the three indicators of average absolute error, average relative error and mean square error, it was found that the combined forecasting model outperformed the single forecasting;from the forecasting results, the number of migrant workers in Anhui Province will reach 14.466 5 millions in 2018 and 14.779 2 millions in 2019, respectively, and the number of migrant workers in Anhui Province will continue to grow. In this regard, Anhui Province should not only develop its economy and encourage migrant workers to return home and start businesses, but also establish a sound social security system so that migrant workers who have gone out can enjoy the same rights of medical security and old-age security, and achieve social equity. In addition, relevant local government departments should issue regulations to protect the labor rights and interests of migrant workers.