山东省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析

Influence Factors of Energy-related Carbon Emissionsin Shandong Province

测算了山东省2000—2016年能源消费产生的碳排放量,采用对数平均Divisia指数法(LMDI)建立了山东省碳排放分解模型,分析了山东省碳排放的影响因素。结果表明,经济发展和人口因素对山东省碳排放起到了拉动作用,且经济发展是碳排放增长的最主要驱动因素;能源效率对山东省碳排放起到了抑制作用,是抑制碳排放的主要因素,但其抑制作用逐渐变缓;能源结构因素对山东省碳排放的影响在2015年由拉动作用转变为抑制作用,是未来抑制碳排放的重要因素。调整能源结构,加快产业转型升级,是山东省实现碳减排的必由之路。

Carbon emission was calculated based on the energy consumption from 2000 to 2016 in Shandong. The carbon emission model was set up and the influence factors were analyzed by adopting Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia Index method(LMDI). The results show that, economic development and population factors have a pulling effect on carbon emission in Shandong and economic development is the most important driving factor. Energy efficiency has an inhibitory effect on carbon emission in Shandong and the inhibitory effect is gradually slowing down. Energy structure factor on carbon emission in Shandong has changed from pulling effect to inhibitory effect in 2015, which is a major factor to restrain carbon emission in the future. Adjusting energy structure and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector are the inevitable course to achieve carbon emission reduction in Shandong.