环境规制对中国城市发展质量的影响研究

Effects of Environmental Regulation on Urban Development Quality in China

利用2003-2016年中国285个地级及以上城市面板数据,基于动态空间杜宾模型,通过设置地理距离空间权重矩阵,着重分析了环境规制对城市发展质量的全局性与异质性影响。结果表明:1)环境规制对全国城市发展质量的影响主要发生在前期控制阶段,二氧化硫对东部城市发展质量的影响主要发生在前期控制阶段,烟(粉)尘对东部城市发展质量的影响主要发生在后期治理阶段,而环境规制对中部与西部城市发展质量的影响幅度较小,不同区域的环境规制效果存在显著的空间异质性。2)全国、东部与中部地区的环境规制在促进城市发展质量提升方面存在协同效应,而西部地区的环境规制在促进城市发展质量提升方面存在替代效应,环境规制工具应根据区域的差异设置不同的组合。3)与中西部地区相比,东部地区的空间效应、时间效应与时空效应都较为显著,通过加强空间关联与时间累积推动中西部城市发展质量提升已成为当务之急。

Based on the panel data of 285 prefecture-level or higher cities in China from 2003 to 2016,the paper analyzes the global and heterogeneous effects of environmental regulation on urban development quality by using the dynamic spatial Durbin model with the geographic distance space weight matrix.The results showthat the effect of environmental regulation on urban development quality in China mainly occurs in the stage of energy-saving.The effect of sulfur dioxide on urban development quality in the eastern region mainly occurs in the stage of energy-saving,while the effect of smoke(powder)dust on urban development quality in the eastern region mainly occurs in the stage of emission-reduction.However,the effect of environmental regulation on urban development quality is weak and poor in the central and western region when compared with that of the eastern region.There exists significantly spatial heterogeneity in the intensity and effect of environmental regulation in different regions.Synergistic effects on promoting urban development quality exist in the entire sample of the eastern region and the central region.In contrast,substitution effects exist in the western region.The combination of environmental regulation tools should be set according to the different situations of different regions.Spatial effects,temporal effects and spatiotemporal effects are more significant on urban development quality in the eastern region than in the central and western region.It has become a top priority to strengthen urban development quality in the central and western regions by strengthening spatial correlation and time accumulation.