经济政策不确定性、金融周期及宏观经济效应——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的分析

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Financial Cycle and the Macroeconomy——Based on the model of TVP-SV-VAR

金融周期是中国及全球经济政策不确定性对于我国宏观经济影响的重要传导渠道,2015-2016年国内开展的一系列涉外经济体制改革加大了中国经济的开放度,也导致其他国家经济政策不确定性等外部冲击对国内宏观经济影响的增大。金融周期对于宏观经济发展呈现出非中性的影响,在2015-2016年之前,主要通过影响产出总量和产出价格、从经济供给端发挥作用;之后,金融周期对于生产者价格指数波动的影响逐渐减少,对消费者价格指数的影响不断增大,这表明金融周期对于宏观经济的影响从供给端转到需求端。对此,政府应进一步提高“双支柱”监管框架对于金融周期的调控能力,发挥金融周期对宏观经济的积极作用,减少外生冲击对实体经济的影响。

Financial cycle was an important transmission channel for the impact of Chinas and global economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomics. A series of domestic economic reforms in 2015-2016 had increased the openness of Chinas economy. In the meantime, the impact of external shocks such as uncertainty on the domestic macro economy had increased. The financial cycle had a non-neutral impact on macroeconomic development. Before 2015-2016, it mainly played a role in affecting the total output and output price, that is, from the supply side. Subsequently, the financial cycle'impact on producer price index decreased. Its impact on the consumer price index was increasing, indicating that the impact had gradually shifted from the supply side to the demand side. The financial cycle has gradually became an important factor affecting macroeconomic development, and it was also an important transmission channel for exogenous shocks to the macroeconomic development. In this regard, the government should consistantly improve the the “double pillars”of monetary policy and macro - prudential policies, to regulate the financial cycle, which woould maximize the positive impact on the macro-economy, minimize the impact of exogenous shocks and to promote the steady and orderly development of the domestic economy.