环境规制对制造业结构升级的影响研究——基于路径分析与面板数据模型检验

The Impact Research of Environmental Regulations on the Structural Upgrading of Manufacturing Industry——Analysis on path and panel data model

随着我国社会主义建设进入新时代,环境问题越来越受到社会各界的强烈关注。近年来,国家颁布多项环境政策来对我国的自然环境和生活环境进行保护和恢复。但是,经济活动都必须具有一定的物质基础,在环境保护的过程中,各种环境规制政策的实施会对制造业发展产生限制和影响。目前学术界在这些方面进行了大量的研究,但是研究主要是以制造业技术创新、外商直接投资和制造过程中的生产效率受到环境规制的影响来展开的,研究对制造业结构升级影响的成果还比较少。本文首先从理论上分析了环境规制对制造业整体产业结构的影响,发现在具体的环境规制开始执行后,就会加重企业的生产成本负担,产生对技术创新消极的“资源挤占”效应。同时,环境规制产生的积极“创新补偿”效应也会带动制造业逐渐走向“清洁化”,在行业结构升级方面发挥十分积极的效果。为进一步探讨环境规制产生对制造业结构升级的影响,本文通过构建时间序列以及PanalData多元回归模型,基于协整检验和Granger因果检验得出结论:环境规制的实施会对制造业产业内结构升级产生限制作用,却促进了制造业产业间结构升级。为更好的发挥环境规制的积极作用,减少其负面约束,本文最后建议,发挥环境规制的正外部性作用,进一步提高环境规制强度;灵活使用环境政策,创新环境规制与制造业集聚的有机结合;完善相关政策提升制造业技术创新能力。

In order to protect and improve the ecological environment and living environment, the state has strengthened the intensity of environmental regulation in recent years. However, while realizing environmental protection ,environmental regulation is bound to have a certain impact on the development of manufacturing industry. Domestic and foreign scholars have done a lot of research on the impact of environmental regulation on the development of manufacturing industry, focusing on the impact of environmental regulation on manufacturing "FDI", production efficiency and technological innovation, and the impact on the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure is not enough. Firstly ,this paper makes a theoretical study on the mechanism of the impact of environmental regulation on the structure of manufacturing industry. It is believed that the implementation of environmental regulation will inevitably increase the production cost burden of enterprises and have a negative "resource crowding-out" effect on technological innovation. At the same time, the positive " innovation compensation" effect of environmental regulation will also promote the "clean" development of manufacturing industry, and play a positive role in upgrading the industrial structure of manufac-turing industry. In order to further explore the impact of environmental regulation on the direction of structural upgrading of manufacturing industry, this paper constructs a time series and Panal Data multiple regression model. Based on co-integration test and Granger causality test, it is concluded that there is long-term stability between environmental regulation and industrial structural upgrading and inter-industrial structural upgrading of manufacturing industry. Counteraction ,but in different directions. That is to say, environmental regulations restrict the upgrading of industrial structure of manufacturing industry, but promote the upgrading of inter-industrial structure of manufacturing industry. In order to better play the positive role of environmental regulation and reduce its negative constraints, this paper finally proposes to improve the existing environmental regulation tools on the premise of understanding the shortcomings of the current vironmental regulation system. At the same time, we should strengthen the innovation and optimization of various environmental regulatory tools.