中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资效率及影响因素分析——基于异质性随机前沿引力模型

Analysis of Efficiency and Determinants of China’s Direct Investment in States along “the Belt and Road”——An Empirical Research Based on Heterogeneous Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

采用真实固定效应的异质性随机前沿引力模型,分别从投资存量和流量两个方面考察了中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的投资效率、潜力及其影响因素。研究结果表明:双边经济规模、地理距离、汇率、金融危机是影响直接投资存量和流量效率的主要因素,且东道国的制度质量、双边投资协定和贸易量是投资非效率的主要影响因素;实证研究证明了2003-2016年间中国与"一带一路"沿线地区的投资效率存在极为不均衡的现象:东南亚未来仍是中国主要投资对象国;中国应持续挖掘对中东欧、独联体和西亚国家投资潜力;同时应重点开发对南亚和中亚的投资潜力。

Based on the heterogeneousstochastic frontier gravity model with true fixed effect,this paper carried out an empirical study on the efficiency,potential and its determinants of China’s investments in the states along"the Belt and Road"from the aspects of investment stock and flow. The findings suggest that the economic scale of two sides,geographic distance,exchange rate,and financial crisis are the main factors affecting the efficiency of direct investment stock and flow;the host country’s institutional quality,bilateral investment agreements,and trade volume are the determinants affecting investment inefficiencies;empirical studies show that China’s investment efficiency in areas along the"Belt and Road"between 2003 and 2016 is extremely uneven: Southeast Asia is still China’s main investment target in future;China should continue to expand the investment potentialin Central and Eastern Europe,the Commonwealth of Independent States,and the West Asian countries while focusing on the development of investment potential in South and Central Asia.