丝绸之路经济带西南四省区温室气体排放核算及等级评估

Accounting and Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas Emission in the Four Provinces of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Southwest China

为建设绿色丝绸之路提供决策参考,基于IPCC法和中国《省级温室气体编制指南》,核算了四川、重庆、云南、广西四省区的温室气体排放清单,并进行了动态分析和排放等级评估。结果表明:2000~2013年四省区温室气体排放总量呈快速增长趋势,其中CO2排放比例最高,其次是N2O和CH4。能源消费是温室气体排放的主要来源,其中又以煤炭贡献量最大。林业固碳的增长速度赶不上温室气体排放的增长速度,且林业固碳能力增长不明显。人均和单位面积温室气体排放量均呈不断增长趋势,且高于全球承担减排义务与应对气候变化的目标,减排任务仍然非常艰巨。四省区GHG排放指数均呈不断增长趋势,排放等级四川、云南和广西均由较低(Ⅰc)上升为中下(Ⅱa);重庆由中下(Ⅱa)上升为较高(Ⅲa)。

In order to provide decision-making reference for the construction of Green Silk Road, based on the IPCC method and the ‘provincial guideline for greenhouse gas generation’ in China, the greenhouse gas emission inventories of Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan and Guangxi were calculated, and dynamic analysis and emission degree evaluation were carried out. The results showed that the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions in four provinces from 2000 to 2013 showed a rapid growth trend, in which the proportion of CO 2 emission was the highest, followed by N 2O and CH 4. Energy consumption is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, with coal being the largest contributor. The growth rate of forest carbon sequestration cannot keep up with the growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions;the growth of forest carbon sequestration capacity is not obvious. The GHG emissions per capital and unit area are increasing, both are higher than the target of global commitment to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to deal with climate change. The task of emission reduction is still very arduous. The GHG emission index of four provinces showed an increasing trend. The emission levels in Sichuan , Yunnan and Guangxi increased from lower(Ⅰc) to lower-middle (Ⅱ a), and Chongqing increased from lower-middle (Ⅱ a) to higher (Ⅲa).