丹江口水库以上流域夏秋汛期来水及相关性分析

Analysis of Runoff and Its Correlation in Watershed above Danjiangkou Reservoir during Summer and Autumn Flood Seasons

利用1930~2018年来水资料,分析了汉江丹江口水库以上流域来水年内、年代际、年际变化特征,并运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和Sen's斜率估计法对来水变化趋势进行了估计,同时基于非参数相关系数对夏、秋汛期来水相关性进行了检验。研究结果表明,流域年、夏汛期及秋汛期来水均呈减少趋势,但均未达到显著水平;夏、秋汛期来水存在明显正相关关系,正相关年份比例超过50%。

This paper analyzed the inner-annual, decadal and annual runoff variation characteristics in the watershed above the Danjiangkou Reservoir based on the runoff data during 1930 -2018. Then Mann -Kendall trend test method and Sen's slope estimation method were used to evaluate the variation trend of runoff. Meanwhile, the runoff correlations between summer and autumn seasons were examined based on the non-parametric correlation coefficients. The results show that the runoff present a non-significant descending trend in both seasons. The runoff of summer flood season has an obvious positive correlation to that of autumn flood season, and the years of positive correlation had exceeded more than half during 1930-2018.