投机资金跨境流动的宏观审慎管理研究

Research on Macro-prudential Management of Cross-border Flow of Speculative Funds

次贷危机之后,从宏观审慎管理角度防范投机资金跨境流动引发的系统性风险日渐成为各国共识。本文首先对我国2008~2018年投机资金流动规模进行测算,验证其顺周期性特征;再以最大的人民币境外资金池——香港人民币离岸市场为例,通过分析投机资金跨境流动的渠道和途径以证实其提升了我国系统性风险水平;最后,比较与梳理新兴市场国家运用宏观审慎管理投机资金跨境流动的经验,为进一步完善符合我国国情的投机资金跨境流动宏观审慎管理体系提出相关政策建议。

After the subprime mortgage crisis,it has becoming a consensus of all countries to prevent systemic risks caused by cross-border flows of speculative funds from the perspective of macro-prudential management.This paper firstly calculates the scale of speculative capital flow in China from 2008 to 2018,and verifies its procyclical characteristics.Then,taking the largest offshore RMB fund pool in Hong Kong as an example,through analyzing the channels and ways of cross-border flow of speculative funds to prove that it enhances the level of systemic risk in China;finally,this paper compares and sorts out the experience of emerging market countries in using macro-pru? dential management of cross-border flows of speculative funds,and proposes policy suggestions to further improve the macro-prudential management system of speculative funds in line with China's national conditions.