正规、非正规金融对城乡居民消费影响差异——基于替代效应视角

The Different Impact of Formal and Informal Finance on Urban and Rural Residents’ Consumption——Based on the Perspective of Substitution Effect

本文通过对中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年与2016年数据的整理,运用混合回归模型与分样本回归的分析方法,从替代效应的视角对正规、非正规金融对城乡居民消费影响的差异进行了分析。研究表明:虽然正规金融与非正规金融对城乡居民消费均能够产生促进作用,但作用效果不尽相同,城镇地区正规金融对居民消费的作用效果更加明显,而农村地区非正规金融则是居民消费融资的主要来源。此外,无论是在城镇地区还是农村地区,正规金融与非正规金融之间都存在替代效应,但替代效应强弱不同使正规、非正规金融对消费的影响系数产生了不同的变化。基于此,本文提出了进一步完善农村金融市场体系、规范和引导非正规金融合规化发展、加快推动城乡一体化建设等政策建议。

This paper analyzes the data of 2014 and 2016 in China Family Tracking Survey (CFPS),and uses the mixed regression model and the method of sampled regression to analyze differences of the impact of formal and informal finance on urban and rural residents' consumption from the perspective of substitution effect.The research shows that although formal finance and informal finance can promote the consumption of urban and rural residents, the effects are not the same.The effect of formal finance in urban areas on household consumption is more obvious, while informal finance in rural areas is the main source of consumer financing.In addition,there is a substitution effect between formal finance and informal finance in both urban and rural areas.However,the difference in the strength of the substitution effect cause different changes in the coefficient of influence of formal and informal finance on consumption.Based on this,this paper proposes policy recommendations for further improving the rural financial market system,standardizing and guiding the development of informal financial compliance,and accelerating the construction of urban and rural integration.