突发事件下城市交通影响范围研究

Study on the Influence Scope of Urban Traffic Under Emergencies

通过对突发事件影响范围进行研究,从而科学快速地制定应急措施,减小突发事件影响.构建时空容量损耗模型,确定了影响交通影响范围的三个关键因素:事件持续时间、事发路段通行能力与上游交通到达量,再选择VanAerde模型来确定突发事件影响范围,最后根据实际案例进行仿真分析,将仿真分析值与模型计算值进行对比研究,以此评价该模型合理性.

By studying the impact scope of emergencies, emergency measures can be scientifically and rapidly formulated to reduce the impact of emergencies. This paper constructed a space-time capacity loss model and determined three key factors that affect the traffic impact range: the duration of the incident, the traffic capacity of the incident section, and the traffic arrival volume of the upstream. Van Aerde model was selected to determine the impact range of emergencies, and simulation analysis was carried out according to actual cases. The simulation analysis value was compared with the calculated value of the model to evaluate the rationality of the model.