人工智能类物化技术的就业补偿效应

Effects of Employee Compensation for AI-Driven Materialized Technologies

构建内生人工智能类物化技术的一般均衡模型,演绎生产中人工智能类物化技术对劳动供给变化的内生反映机制,考察劳动要素供给对产出的直接效应以及通过改变人工智能类物化技术使用产生的就业补偿效应;结合我国制造业2005-2016年面板数据,验证了人工智能类物化技术就业补偿效应的存在性及其对经济增长的影响程度,并测算了我国人工智能类物化技术使用规模的门槛值。结果显示:(1)人工智能类物化技术的就业补偿效应对产出的作用方向与要素供给效应相反,其能够对就业缺口形成补充。若人工智能类物化技术使用规模大于其门槛值,则就业补偿效应大于要素供给效应,并能够完全补充劳动力缺口。(2)我国制造业中人工智能类物化技术的就业补偿效应显著,且已接近门槛值。中低端人工智能类物化技术的就业补偿效应强于高端人工智能类物化技术;在中低技术制造业中,人工智能类物化技术的使用程度较高,但就业补偿效应不显著,而高技术制造业中人工智能类物化技术就业补偿效应明显。

With the construction of a general equilibrium model of embodied AI-driven technologies,this paper deduces the mechanism that these technologies endogenously react to the changes of labor supply in the process of production,while investigating the direct effects of supply of labor elements on output as well as the effects of employee compensation from changing these technological application.Together with the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry from 2005 to 2016,it further tests the existence of effects of employee compensation for AI-driven materialized technologies and the degree of its impact on economic growth,and calculates the threshold value for the application scope of these technologies in China.The results are stated as follows:(1)The way that the effects of employee compensation for these technologies affect output is opposite to those effects of element supply,and can supplement the workforce gap completely.When the application scope of these technologies is wider than its threshold value,the effects of employee compensation will be larger than those of element supply,and be able to completely compensate for the workforce gap.(2)Effects of employee compensation for these technologies in China’s manufacturing industry are significant,and close to the threshold value.To put it specifically,the employee compensation effects in the medium-low AI-driven materialized technologies are more powerful than those in the high-level ones;the degree in which these technologies are utilized is higher,but their employee compensation effects are not significant in the medium-low-technology manufacturing industries,whereas those effects are significant in the high-technology manufacturing ones.