中国货币政策波动会影响宏观经济调控效果吗

Will Fluctuations in China’s Monetary Policy Influence the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Regulation?

运用GARCH族模型和马尔科夫区制转移模型度量了中国"价格型"和"数量型"货币政策的波动性,并在利用Granger因果检验等方法检验政策波动对经济波动灵敏度的基础上,进一步构建TVAR模型实证考察了货币政策波动对调控效果影响的门限效应,结果表明,货币政策波动对宏观调控效果的影响存在显著的门限特征,只有当政策波动性低于门限值时,"价格型"和"数量型"货币政策的产出效应和价格效应才更为有效;同时,在门限值两侧,"价格型"调控模式均优于"数量型"调控模式。因此,为提高货币政策的有效性、前瞻性和灵活性,建议货币当局不仅要保持货币政策的稳定性并做好其与政策灵敏性之间的微妙权衡,更要加快推动货币政策由"数量型"为主导向"价格型"为主导的转型。

Using a GARCH model and a Markov regime switching model,we measured the fluctuations in China’ s price-oriented and quantity-oriented monetary policies. Through the Granger causality test,we tested the sensitivity of policy fluctuations to economic fluctuations and built a TVAR model to empirically investigate the threshold effect of monetary policy fluctuations on the results of macroeconomic regulation. The results of empirical investigation showed that monetary policy fluctuations had a dynamic and significant threshold effect on the results of macroeconomic regulation. Specifically,the output effect and price effect of price-oriented and quantity-oriented monetary policies were more significant only when monetary policy fluctuations were below the specified thresholds. On both sides of the specified thresholds,price-oriented regulation was superior to quantity-oriented regulation. To improve the effectiveness,foresight,and flexibility of monetary policies,we recommend that the monetary authorities not only ensure the stability of monetary policies and the delicate balance between policy stability and policy sensitivity,but also accelerate the transformation from quantity-oriented monetary policies to price-oriented monetary policies.