基于马尔柯夫链预测考研产品市场占有率

The Market Share Prediction of the Postgraduate Entrance Examination Product Based on Markov Chain

在考研产品市场上,欲考研人群对某种考研产品的市场占有率的动态转移变化过程适合马尔柯夫预测模型.本文针对欲考研人群对考研产品的使用情况进行网络问卷调查,共收回有效问卷38182份,利用随机抽样的1000份问卷数据进行预测线下面授考研产品,线上PC端考研产品和线上移动端考研产品的市场占有率,结果表明:多年后,线下面授考研产品市场占有率将稳定在12%,线上PC端考研产品市场占有率将稳定在14%,线上移动端考研产品市场占有率将稳定在74%.通过预测使考研培训机构了解各种考研产品的市场竞争力,采取相应的举措来提高产品的市场占有率.

The dynamic transfer and change of the market share of a certain product was suitable for Markov prediction model in the postgraduate entrance examination product market.In this paper,network questionnaires were distributed to investigate the fact that pre-graduate students used mobile terminal studying product.38182 effective questionnaires were received,the market share of the three kinds of products was predicted by using the random sampling data of 1000 questionnaires.It showed that:The market share of offline face-to-face postgraduate entrance examination products will be stable at 12%.The market share of online PC products will be stable at 14%.The market share of online mobile postgraduate entrance examination product will be stable at 74% after many years.The research training institute can understand the market competition of various products by the way of forecasting and taking corresponding measures to improve the market share of products.