基于GM(0,N)模型的瓦斯涌出量简易预测

Simple Prediction of Gas.Emission Based on GM(0,N) Model

瓦斯涌出量具有非线性、时变与多变量等特点,对其进行准确预测具有很大的难度.在考虑初始数据的重要性基础上,对现有的GM(0,N)模型进行适当改进,得到改进的GM(0,N)模型.改进的GM(0,N)模型以一次累加生成算子(1-AGO)作为模型生成基础,没有引入导数,模型求解所得最小二乘解相对简便.结合某煤矿影响瓦斯涌出量的多因素数据,进行建模与预测,运行过程简易.与GM(0,N)模型、GM(1,N)模型比较,效果较为理想.

It is very difficult to predict the gas emission accurately because it is nonlinear,time-varying and multi-variable.Considering the importance of initial data,the existing GM(0,N)model is improved to obtain an improved GM(0,N)model.The improved GM(0,N)model takes one-time accumulating generation operator(1-AGO)as the basis of model generation,without introducing derivatives,and the least square solution obtained by solving the model is relatively convenient.Combined with the multi-factor data of a coal mine affecting the amount of gas emission,modeling and prediction are carried out,and the operation process is simple.Compared with the GM(0,N)model and the GM(1,N)model,the effect is ideal.