计及多能耦合机组不确定性的综合能源系统运行优化模型研究

Integrated Energy System Operation Optimization Model Considering Uncertainty of Multi-energy Coupling Units

随着我国能源领域深层次变革,综合能源系统的开发建设进程加快。由于综合能源系统是一个强耦合系统,特别是起主要作用的多能耦合机组运行产生的相关问题日益显现。研究针对综合能源系统中多能耦合机组的不确定性问题展开优化研究,建立了计及多能耦合机组不确定性的综合能源系统运行优化模型,以日运行成本最低为目标。在引入人工智能算法保障风光出力及负荷的预测精度的基础上,采用混合整数区间线性规划的方法,通过区间值的形式将优化结果进行表征,解决了系统中由于多能耦合机组运行效率偏差引起的系统不确定性问题。算例分析表明,采用所提优化模型及方法后的结果可将系统的机组出力选择控制在优化计算后的确定区间内,从而使得各设备单元的优化调度更科学合理,对系统调度决策具有重要意义。同时定量分析了不确定性所产生的影响,对系统运行成本等经济性指标结果进一步优化明确,提升了系统运行的经济效益。

With the deep-seated changes in China’s energy field, development and construction of integrated energy system speed up. As integrated energy system is a strong coupling system, especially the related problems, arising from operation of multi-energy coupling units playing a major role, become increasingly apparent. Aiming at uncertainties of multi-energy coupling units in integrated energy system, an optimization model of integrated energy system operation considering uncertainties of multi-energy coupling units is established. Aiming at the lowest daily operation cost, on the basis of introducing artificial intelligence algorithm to ensure prediction accuracy of wind and solar output and load, the mixed integer interval linear programming method is adopted. The optimization results are expressed in the form of interval values to solve the system uncertainty caused by operational efficiency deviation of multi-energy coupling units in the system. Example analysis shows that the output selection of the units can be controlled within a predetermined range of the optimal model calculation by using the optimized model and its results, making the optimal dispatch of each unit more scientific and reasonable. It is of great significance to the system dispatching decision-making. It can quantitatively analyze the impact of uncertainty, and economic indicators such as the operation cost of the system can be analyzed. The bidding results are further optimized and clarified to improve economic efficiency of system operation.