中国城镇化的收入分配效应——理论与经验证据

The Income Distribution Effect of China’s Urbanization——Theoretical and Empirical Evidence

学术界关于城镇化的经济增长效应基本上已经取得共识,然而关于城镇化如何影响社会收入分配却仍然存在较大争议。本文基于收入分配不平等的测算方法出发,构建了城镇化与社会收入分配两者关系的理论模型。理论分析表明,城镇化与社会收入分配不平等之间存在倒U型关系,即城镇化在初期阶段会扩大收入分配不平等,而随着城镇化进程的不断深入,在后期将有助于改善社会收入分配格局。进一步构建动态面板模型对上述结果进行实证检验,研究发现中国的城镇化进程在2015年以前显著恶化了收入分配状况,但从2015年开始则有助于缓和收入分配失衡。因此,中国现阶段应当持续加快推进城镇化发展,不断改善社会收入分配状况,努力实现效率与公平的兼容。

The academic community has basically reached a consensus on the economic growth effect of urbanization.However, there is still much controversy about how urbanization affects social income distribution. Based on the calculation method of income inequality, this paper constructs a theoretical model of the relationship between urbanization and social income distribution. Theoretical analysis shows that there is an inverted U-type relationship between urbanization and social income distribution, that is, urbanization will expand income distribution inequality in the initial stage, and with the deepening of urbanization process, it will help to improve social income distribution pattern in the later stage. Further construction of the dynamic panel model to empirically test the above results, the study finds that China’s urbanization process significantly worsened the income distribution before 2015, however, after 2015, it was helpful in alleviating the imbalance in income distribution.Therefore, at this stage, China should continue to accelerate the development of urbanization, continuously improve the distribution of social income, and strive to achieve compatibility between efficiency and fairness.